Ridin' The Waiver
2026 Season
Week
5
Last scored: Week
4
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
ryanvhill
|
3-1
10 games left
|
519.7
|
97.1%
60.6% bye
|
9.9
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
JonnyWarren22
|
3-1
10 games left
|
516.3
|
99.6%
80.3% bye
|
10.6
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
danr2049
|
3-1
10 games left
|
480.9
|
86.8%
19.3% bye
|
10.9
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
OBRightKanobi
|
3-1
10 games left
|
475.2
|
88.8%
18.5% bye
|
9.9
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
chenry3
|
3-1
10 games left
|
467.2
|
76.1%
12.8% bye
|
9.9
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
aaronhill
|
2-2
10 games left
|
465.8
|
63.7%
5.4% bye
|
7.6
(2-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
denty425
|
2-2
10 games left
|
438.4
|
17.2%
0.4% bye
|
8.2
(2-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
iammclargehuge
|
2-2
10 games left
|
393.4
|
1.5%
|
7.3
(2-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
colglj
|
1-3
10 games left
|
473.4
|
39.8%
2.1% bye
|
6.3
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
PtownWarren
|
1-3
10 games left
|
446.0
|
15.2%
0.3% bye
|
4.6
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
bcdub49
|
1-3
10 games left
|
445.6
|
14.3%
0.3% bye
|
4.9
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
khoa4101
|
0-4
10 games left
|
278.7
|
0.0%
|
2.0
(0-10)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
ryanvhill
3-1 • 10 left
97.1%
playoff
9.9
proj wins
519.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
31.1%
Seed 2:
29.4%
Seed 3:
17.0%
Seed 4:
10.1%
Seed 5:
6.0%
Seed 6:
3.4%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
JonnyWarren22
3-1 • 10 left
99.6%
playoff
10.6
proj wins
516.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
51.4%
Seed 2:
28.8%
Seed 3:
11.6%
Seed 4:
4.8%
Seed 5:
2.2%
Seed 6:
0.7%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
3
danr2049
3-1 • 10 left
86.8%
playoff
10.9
proj wins
480.9
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
5.8%
Seed 2:
13.5%
Seed 3:
20.7%
Seed 4:
19.4%
Seed 5:
15.8%
Seed 6:
11.6%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
OBRightKanobi
3-1 • 10 left
88.8%
playoff
9.9
proj wins
475.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
5.8%
Seed 2:
12.7%
Seed 3:
19.9%
Seed 4:
21.2%
Seed 5:
17.5%
Seed 6:
11.8%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
chenry3
3-1 • 10 left
76.1%
playoff
9.9
proj wins
467.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
4.3%
Seed 2:
8.5%
Seed 3:
14.5%
Seed 4:
17.0%
Seed 5:
16.4%
Seed 6:
15.3%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
aaronhill
2-2 • 10 left
63.7%
playoff
7.6
proj wins
465.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
1.0%
Seed 2:
4.4%
Seed 3:
9.2%
Seed 4:
14.0%
Seed 5:
17.1%
Seed 6:
18.0%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
denty425
2-2 • 10 left
17.2%
playoff
8.2
proj wins
438.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.3%
Seed 3:
0.9%
Seed 4:
2.3%
Seed 5:
4.8%
Seed 6:
8.7%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(5.2% chance)
• You must win 5 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 81.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 78.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 42.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 36.9 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 28.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 27.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.0)
• colglj: outscore them by 35.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 7.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 7.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 159.7)
8-6
(3.9% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 81.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 78.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 42.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 36.9 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 28.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 27.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.0)
• colglj: outscore them by 35.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 7.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 7.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 159.7)
9-5
(2.9% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 81.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 78.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 42.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 36.9 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 28.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 27.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.0)
• colglj: outscore them by 35.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 7.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 7.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 159.7)
10-4
(2.1% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must not exceed 10 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 81.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 78.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 42.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 36.9 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 28.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 27.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.0)
• colglj: outscore them by 35.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 7.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 7.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 159.7)
11-3
(1.7% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• PtownWarren must not exceed 11 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 81.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 78.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 42.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 36.9 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 28.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 27.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.0)
• colglj: outscore them by 35.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 7.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 7.3 points
12-2
(1.4% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must not exceed 12 wins
• iammclargehuge must not exceed 12 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 81.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 78.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 42.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 36.9 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 28.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 27.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.0)
8
iammclargehuge
2-2 • 10 left
1.5%
playoff
7.3
proj wins
393.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 5:
0.4%
Seed 6:
1.0%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(0.5% chance)
• You must win 5 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 126.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 123.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 87.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 72.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 45.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 80.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 52.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 52.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 114.6)
8-6
(0.3% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 126.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 123.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 87.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 72.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 45.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 80.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 52.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 52.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 114.6)
9-5
(0.3% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 126.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 123.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 87.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 72.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 45.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 80.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 52.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 52.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 114.6)
10-4
(0.2% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must not exceed 10 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 126.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 123.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 87.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 72.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 45.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 80.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 52.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 52.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 114.6)
11-3
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• PtownWarren must not exceed 11 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 126.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 123.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 87.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 72.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 45.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 80.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 52.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 52.3 points
12-2
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must not exceed 12 wins
• denty425 must not exceed 12 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 126.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 123.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 87.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 72.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 45.1 points
9
colglj
1-3 • 10 left
39.8%
playoff
6.3
proj wins
473.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.4%
Seed 2:
1.8%
Seed 3:
4.3%
Seed 4:
7.2%
Seed 5:
11.8%
Seed 6:
14.3%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(13.2% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 46.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 42.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 7.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 1.9 points
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.3)
• aaronhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.7)
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.0)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 80.1)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.4)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 194.7)
8-6
(9.8% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 46.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 42.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 7.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 1.9 points
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.3)
• aaronhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.7)
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.0)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 80.1)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.4)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 194.7)
9-5
(7.2% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 46.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 42.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 7.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 1.9 points
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.3)
• aaronhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.7)
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.0)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 80.1)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.4)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 194.7)
10-4
(5.4% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must not exceed 10 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 46.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 42.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 7.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 1.9 points
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.3)
• aaronhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.7)
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.0)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 80.1)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.4)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 194.7)
11-3
(4.2% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must not exceed 11 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 46.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 42.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 7.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 1.9 points
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.3)
• aaronhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.7)
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.0)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 80.1)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.4)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.8)
10
PtownWarren
1-3 • 10 left
15.2%
playoff
4.6
proj wins
446.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.3%
Seed 3:
1.0%
Seed 4:
2.1%
Seed 5:
4.2%
Seed 6:
7.7%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(5.0% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 73.8 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 19.8 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.6)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.5 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 167.3)
8-6
(3.7% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 73.8 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 19.8 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.6)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.5 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 167.3)
9-5
(2.8% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 73.8 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 19.8 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.6)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.5 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 167.3)
10-4
(2.0% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must not exceed 10 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 73.8 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 19.8 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.6)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.5 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 167.3)
11-3
(1.6% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 73.8 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 19.8 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.6)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.5 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.4)
11
bcdub49
1-3 • 10 left
14.3%
playoff
4.9
proj wins
445.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.2%
Seed 3:
0.9%
Seed 4:
1.9%
Seed 5:
3.8%
Seed 6:
7.4%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(4.7% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 74.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.4 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.7 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 20.2 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.2)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.2)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 0.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 166.9)
8-6
(3.5% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 74.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.4 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.7 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 20.2 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.2)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.2)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 0.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 166.9)
9-5
(2.6% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 74.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.4 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.7 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 20.2 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.2)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.2)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 0.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 166.9)
10-4
(1.9% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must not exceed 10 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 74.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.4 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.7 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 20.2 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.2)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.2)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 0.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 166.9)
11-3
(1.5% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• PtownWarren must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 74.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 70.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 35.4 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 29.7 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 21.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 20.2 points
• denty425: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 7.2)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 52.2)
• colglj: outscore them by 27.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 0.5 points
12
khoa4101
0-4 • 10 left
0.0%
playoff
2.0
proj wins
278.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 241.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 237.6 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 202.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 196.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 188.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 187.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 114.7 points
• colglj: outscore them by 194.8 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 167.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 167.0 points
8-6
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 241.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 237.6 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 202.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 196.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 188.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 187.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 114.7 points
• colglj: outscore them by 194.8 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 167.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 167.0 points
9-5
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 241.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 237.6 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 202.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 196.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 188.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 187.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 114.7 points
• colglj: outscore them by 194.8 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 167.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 167.0 points
10-4
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 241.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 237.6 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 202.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 196.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 188.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 187.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 114.7 points
• colglj: outscore them by 194.8 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 167.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 167.0 points
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.