Ridin' The Waiver
2026 Season
Week
5
Last scored: Week
4
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
Viewing Historical Week 3
Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 3
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
ryanvhill
|
3-0
11 games left
|
429.2
|
100.0%
98.6% bye
|
13.1
(3-14)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
JonnyWarren22
|
3-0
11 games left
|
397.6
|
100.0%
97.5% bye
|
13.1
(3-14)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
chenry3
|
2-1
11 games left
|
366.0
|
91.3%
2.9% bye
|
9.1
(2-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
denty425
|
2-1
11 games left
|
347.9
|
83.4%
0.5% bye
|
9.5
(2-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
danr2049
|
2-1
11 games left
|
344.8
|
76.3%
0.4% bye
|
9.3
(2-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
OBRightKanobi
|
2-1
11 games left
|
337.7
|
58.3%
0.1% bye
|
9.4
(2-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
aaronhill
|
1-2
11 games left
|
343.7
|
49.6%
0.1% bye
|
6.8
(1-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
PtownWarren
|
1-2
11 games left
|
325.6
|
24.8%
0.0% bye
|
5.5
(1-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
bcdub49
|
1-2
11 games left
|
315.3
|
10.3%
|
5.8
(1-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
iammclargehuge
|
1-2
11 games left
|
288.1
|
0.3%
|
5.6
(1-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
colglj
|
0-3
11 games left
|
325.9
|
5.8%
0.0% bye
|
4.3
(0-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
khoa4101
|
0-3
11 games left
|
212.6
|
0.0%
|
2.5
(0-11)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
ryanvhill
3-0 • 11 left
100.0%
playoff
13.1
proj wins
429.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
71.2%
Seed 2:
27.4%
Seed 3:
1.3%
Seed 4:
0.1%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
JonnyWarren22
3-0 • 11 left
100.0%
playoff
13.1
proj wins
397.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
28.3%
Seed 2:
69.2%
Seed 3:
2.4%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
3
chenry3
2-1 • 11 left
91.3%
playoff
9.1
proj wins
366.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.4%
Seed 2:
2.5%
Seed 3:
47.9%
Seed 4:
19.9%
Seed 5:
12.8%
Seed 6:
7.8%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
denty425
2-1 • 11 left
83.4%
playoff
9.5
proj wins
347.9
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.4%
Seed 3:
18.7%
Seed 4:
27.0%
Seed 5:
21.6%
Seed 6:
15.5%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
danr2049
2-1 • 11 left
76.3%
playoff
9.3
proj wins
344.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.4%
Seed 3:
14.8%
Seed 4:
21.8%
Seed 5:
21.1%
Seed 6:
18.2%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
OBRightKanobi
2-1 • 11 left
58.3%
playoff
9.4
proj wins
337.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
5.7%
Seed 4:
12.4%
Seed 5:
18.0%
Seed 6:
22.0%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
aaronhill
1-2 • 11 left
49.6%
playoff
6.8
proj wins
343.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
5.7%
Seed 4:
11.7%
Seed 5:
15.0%
Seed 6:
17.1%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(15.3% chance)
• You must win 6 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 85.6 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 54.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 4.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 1.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 18.1)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 28.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 131.1)
8-6
(11.3% chance)
• You must win 7 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 85.6 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 54.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 4.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 1.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 18.1)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 28.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 131.1)
9-5
(8.4% chance)
• You must win 8 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 85.6 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 54.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 4.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 1.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 18.1)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 28.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 131.1)
10-4
(6.2% chance)
• You must win 9 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 85.6 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 54.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 4.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 1.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 18.1)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 28.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 131.1)
11-3
(4.6% chance)
• You must win 10 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• khoa4101 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 85.6 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 54.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 4.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 1.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 18.1)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 28.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 131.1)
12-2
(3.8% chance)
• You must win 11 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must not exceed 12 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 12 wins
• iammclargehuge must not exceed 12 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 85.6 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 54.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 4.3 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 1.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 6.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 18.1)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 28.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
8
PtownWarren
1-2 • 11 left
24.8%
playoff
5.5
proj wins
325.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
2.6%
Seed 4:
5.2%
Seed 5:
7.1%
Seed 6:
9.8%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(7.6% chance)
• You must win 6 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 72.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.5)
• colglj: outscore them by 0.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.0)
8-6
(5.7% chance)
• You must win 7 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 72.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.5)
• colglj: outscore them by 0.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.0)
9-5
(4.2% chance)
• You must win 8 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 72.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.5)
• colglj: outscore them by 0.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.0)
10-4
(3.1% chance)
• You must win 9 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 72.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.5)
• colglj: outscore them by 0.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.0)
11-3
(2.3% chance)
• You must win 10 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• khoa4101 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 72.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.5)
• colglj: outscore them by 0.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.0)
12-2
(1.9% chance)
• You must win 11 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must not exceed 12 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 12 wins
• iammclargehuge must not exceed 12 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 72.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.4)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.5)
9
bcdub49
1-2 • 11 left
10.3%
playoff
5.8
proj wins
315.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.6%
Seed 4:
1.3%
Seed 5:
2.6%
Seed 6:
5.7%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(3.2% chance)
• You must win 6 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 114.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 82.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 50.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 32.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 29.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 22.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 28.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 10.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
• colglj: outscore them by 10.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 102.7)
8-6
(2.4% chance)
• You must win 7 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 114.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 82.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 50.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 32.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 29.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 22.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 28.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 10.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
• colglj: outscore them by 10.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 102.7)
9-5
(1.7% chance)
• You must win 8 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 114.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 82.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 50.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 32.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 29.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 22.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 28.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 10.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
• colglj: outscore them by 10.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 102.7)
10-4
(1.3% chance)
• You must win 9 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 114.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 82.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 50.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 32.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 29.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 22.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 28.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 10.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
• colglj: outscore them by 10.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 102.7)
11-3
(1.0% chance)
• You must win 10 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• khoa4101 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 114.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 82.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 50.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 32.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 29.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 22.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 28.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 10.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
• colglj: outscore them by 10.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 102.7)
12-2
(0.8% chance)
• You must win 11 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must not exceed 12 wins
• PtownWarren must not exceed 12 wins
• iammclargehuge must not exceed 12 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 114.1 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 82.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 50.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 32.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 29.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 22.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 28.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 10.5 points
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.1)
10
iammclargehuge
1-2 • 11 left
0.3%
playoff
5.6
proj wins
288.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 6:
0.2%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 6 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 141.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 109.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 78.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 59.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 56.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 49.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 37.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 27.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 37.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.5)
8-6
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 7 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 141.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 109.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 78.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 59.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 56.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 49.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 37.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 27.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 37.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.5)
9-5
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 8 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 141.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 109.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 78.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 59.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 56.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 49.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 37.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 27.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 37.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.5)
10-4
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 9 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 141.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 109.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 78.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 59.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 56.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 49.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 37.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 27.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 37.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.5)
11-3
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 10 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• khoa4101 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 141.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 109.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 78.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 59.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 56.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 49.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 37.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 27.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 37.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 75.5)
12-2
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 11 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must not exceed 12 wins
• PtownWarren must not exceed 12 wins
• bcdub49 must not exceed 12 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 141.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 109.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 78.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 59.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 56.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 49.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 37.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 27.2 points
11
colglj
0-3 • 11 left
5.8%
playoff
4.3
proj wins
325.9
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.1%
Seed 4:
0.5%
Seed 5:
1.5%
Seed 6:
3.6%
Magic Number
11 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(1.9% chance)
• You must win 7 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 71.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 17.9 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.2)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.2)
8-6
(1.4% chance)
• You must win 8 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 71.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 17.9 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.2)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.2)
9-5
(1.1% chance)
• You must win 9 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 71.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 17.9 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.2)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.2)
10-4
(0.8% chance)
• You must win 10 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 71.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 17.9 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.2)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.2)
11-3
(0.6% chance)
• You must win 11 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• khoa4101 must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 103.5 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 71.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 40.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 22.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 19.0 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 12.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 17.9 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 0.2)
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.6)
• iammclargehuge: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 37.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.2)
12
khoa4101
0-3 • 11 left
0.0%
playoff
2.5
proj wins
212.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Magic Number
11 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 7 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 7 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 216.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 185.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 153.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 132.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 125.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 131.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 113.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 102.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 75.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 113.3 points
8-6
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 8 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 6 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 216.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 185.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 153.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 132.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 125.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 131.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 113.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 102.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 75.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 113.3 points
9-5
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 9 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 5 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 216.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 185.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 153.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 132.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 125.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 131.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 113.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 102.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 75.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 113.3 points
10-4
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 10 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 216.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 185.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 153.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 132.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 125.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 131.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 113.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 102.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 75.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 113.3 points
11-3
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 11 of 11 remaining games
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 11 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 11 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 11 remaining
• colglj must not exceed 11 wins
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 216.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 185.1 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 153.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 132.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 125.2 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 131.2 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 113.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 102.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 75.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 113.3 points
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.