Ridin' The Waiver
2025 Season
Week 10
Last scored: Week 10
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
aaronhill
|
9-1
4 games left
|
1179.3
|
100.0%
85.8% bye
|
12.0
(9-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
OBRightKanobi
|
8-2
4 games left
|
1200.4
|
100.0%
57.9% bye
|
10.6
(8-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
iammclargehuge
|
7-3
4 games left
|
1303.8
|
100.0%
54.8% bye
|
10.3
(7-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
bcdub49
|
6-4
4 games left
|
1146.1
|
96.1%
1.5% bye
|
8.9
(6-10)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
danr2049
|
5-5
4 games left
|
1049.1
|
40.0%
|
6.9
(5-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
colglj
|
5-5
4 games left
|
1045.0
|
46.0%
0.0% bye
|
6.8
(5-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
denty425
|
4-6
4 games left
|
1162.2
|
60.2%
|
5.7
(4-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
PtownWarren
|
4-6
4 games left
|
1105.2
|
36.0%
|
6.4
(4-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
ryanvhill
|
4-6
4 games left
|
1037.0
|
12.1%
|
5.7
(4-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
chenry3
|
3-7
4 games left
|
1095.5
|
8.6%
|
5.2
(3-7)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
khoa4101
|
3-7
4 games left
|
970.4
|
0.9%
|
4.0
(3-7)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
JonnyWarren22
|
2-8
4 games left
|
1026.8
|
0.2%
|
3.0
(2-6)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
aaronhill
9-1 • 4 left
100.0%
playoff
12.0
proj wins
1179.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
60.4%
Seed 2:
25.4%
Seed 3:
13.2%
Seed 4:
1.0%
2
BYE
OBRightKanobi
8-2 • 4 left
100.0%
playoff
10.6
proj wins
1200.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
24.3%
Seed 2:
33.6%
Seed 3:
37.1%
Seed 4:
4.8%
Seed 5:
0.1%
3
iammclargehuge
7-3 • 4 left
100.0%
playoff
10.3
proj wins
1303.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
15.1%
Seed 2:
39.7%
Seed 3:
42.1%
Seed 4:
2.8%
Seed 5:
0.3%
Magic Number
1 win
To clinch playoff spot
4
bcdub49
6-4 • 4 left
96.1%
playoff
8.9
proj wins
1146.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.2%
Seed 2:
1.3%
Seed 3:
6.9%
Seed 4:
64.6%
Seed 5:
17.3%
Seed 6:
5.7%
Magic Number
2 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
danr2049
5-5 • 4 left
40.0%
playoff
6.9
proj wins
1049.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.2%
Seed 4:
4.1%
Seed 5:
16.2%
Seed 6:
19.4%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
colglj
5-5 • 4 left
46.0%
playoff
6.8
proj wins
1045.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.3%
Seed 4:
4.9%
Seed 5:
19.1%
Seed 6:
21.7%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
denty425
4-6 • 4 left
60.2%
playoff
5.7
proj wins
1162.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.2%
Seed 4:
11.9%
Seed 5:
27.6%
Seed 6:
20.4%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(19.1% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 117.2)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.1)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.2)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 191.9)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 135.5)
7-7
(15.1% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 141.7 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 117.2)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.1)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.2)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 191.9)
5-9
(14.1% chance)
• You must win 1 of 4 remaining games
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 117.2)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.1)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.2)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.8)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 191.9)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 135.5)
8-6
(11.9% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 38.2 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 141.7 points
• bcdub49: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 113.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 117.2)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.1)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.2)
8
PtownWarren
4-6 • 4 left
36.0%
playoff
6.4
proj wins
1105.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
4.6%
Seed 5:
12.7%
Seed 6:
18.7%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(11.4% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49: outscore them by 41.0 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 56.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 60.2)
• denty425: outscore them by 57.2 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 68.1)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 134.8)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 78.4)
7-7
(9.0% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 198.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 41.0 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 56.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 60.2)
• denty425: outscore them by 57.2 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 68.1)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 134.8)
5-9
(8.4% chance)
• You must win 1 of 4 remaining games
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 56.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 60.2)
• denty425: outscore them by 57.2 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 68.1)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.7)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 134.8)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 78.4)
8-6
(7.1% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 95.3 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 198.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 41.0 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 56.1)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 60.2)
• denty425: outscore them by 57.2 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 68.1)
9
ryanvhill
4-6 • 4 left
12.1%
playoff
5.7
proj wins
1037.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.9%
Seed 5:
4.3%
Seed 6:
6.9%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(3.8% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49: outscore them by 109.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 125.3 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 68.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 58.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.7)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.3)
7-7
(3.0% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 266.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 109.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 125.3 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 68.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 58.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.7)
5-9
(2.8% chance)
• You must win 1 of 4 remaining games
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 125.3 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 68.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 58.5 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 66.7)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.3)
8-6
(2.4% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 163.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 266.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 109.2 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 125.3 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 68.2 points
10
chenry3
3-7 • 4 left
8.6%
playoff
5.2
proj wins
1095.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.3%
Seed 5:
2.1%
Seed 6:
6.2%
Playoff Scenarios
5-9
(3.7% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 50.5)
• denty425: outscore them by 66.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 9.8 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 58.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 68.7)
6-8
(2.8% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49: outscore them by 50.7 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 50.5)
• denty425: outscore them by 66.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 9.8 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 58.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 68.7)
7-7
(2.1% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 208.5 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 50.7 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 50.5)
• denty425: outscore them by 66.9 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 9.8 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 58.4)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 125.1)
11
khoa4101
3-7 • 4 left
0.9%
playoff
4.0
proj wins
970.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 5:
0.2%
Seed 6:
0.7%
Playoff Scenarios
5-9
(0.4% chance)
• You must win 2 of 4 remaining games
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• danr2049: outscore them by 78.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 74.7 points
• denty425: outscore them by 192.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 134.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 66.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 125.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 56.5 points
6-8
(0.3% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49: outscore them by 175.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 78.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 74.7 points
• denty425: outscore them by 192.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 134.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 66.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 125.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 56.5 points
7-7
(0.2% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 333.6 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 175.8 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 78.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 74.7 points
• denty425: outscore them by 192.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 134.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 66.8 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 125.2 points
12
JonnyWarren22
2-8 • 4 left
0.2%
playoff
3.0
proj wins
1026.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 6:
0.2%
Playoff Scenarios
5-9
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 3 of 4 remaining games
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• danr2049: outscore them by 22.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 18.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.6 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 78.5 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 10.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 68.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 56.4)
6-8
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 4 of 4 remaining games
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 4 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 4 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 4 remaining
• bcdub49: outscore them by 119.4 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 22.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 18.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 135.6 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 78.5 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 10.4 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 68.8 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 56.4)
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.