Ridin' The Waiver
2025 Season
Week 10
Last scored: Week 10
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
Viewing Historical Week 4
Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 4
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
aaronhill
|
4-0
10 games left
|
491.1
|
99.7%
50.3% bye
|
11.6
(4-14)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
iammclargehuge
|
3-1
10 games left
|
509.0
|
99.9%
70.5% bye
|
10.6
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
denty425
|
3-1
10 games left
|
497.2
|
99.9%
48.6% bye
|
10.7
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
OBRightKanobi
|
3-1
10 games left
|
490.8
|
99.7%
27.1% bye
|
10.4
(3-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
bcdub49
|
2-2
10 games left
|
470.7
|
94.5%
3.4% bye
|
8.8
(2-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
colglj
|
2-2
10 games left
|
431.7
|
49.8%
0.1% bye
|
8.4
(2-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
khoa4101
|
2-2
10 games left
|
387.8
|
15.5%
|
5.4
(2-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
PtownWarren
|
1-3
10 games left
|
410.7
|
4.8%
|
4.9
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
chenry3
|
1-3
10 games left
|
409.6
|
19.0%
0.0% bye
|
4.4
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
danr2049
|
1-3
10 games left
|
408.5
|
12.7%
|
5.5
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
JonnyWarren22
|
1-3
10 games left
|
374.8
|
4.1%
|
4.0
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
ryanvhill
|
1-3
10 games left
|
363.2
|
0.3%
|
4.7
(1-11)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
aaronhill
4-0 • 10 left
99.7%
playoff
11.6
proj wins
491.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
27.7%
Seed 2:
22.7%
Seed 3:
21.2%
Seed 4:
18.6%
Seed 5:
8.6%
Seed 6:
1.0%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
iammclargehuge
3-1 • 10 left
99.9%
playoff
10.6
proj wins
509.0
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
40.6%
Seed 2:
29.9%
Seed 3:
17.5%
Seed 4:
9.2%
Seed 5:
2.4%
Seed 6:
0.4%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
3
denty425
3-1 • 10 left
99.9%
playoff
10.7
proj wins
497.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
20.6%
Seed 2:
27.9%
Seed 3:
28.5%
Seed 4:
18.2%
Seed 5:
4.2%
Seed 6:
0.4%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
OBRightKanobi
3-1 • 10 left
99.7%
playoff
10.4
proj wins
490.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
10.3%
Seed 2:
16.8%
Seed 3:
25.4%
Seed 4:
32.5%
Seed 5:
12.9%
Seed 6:
1.8%
Magic Number
9 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
bcdub49
2-2 • 10 left
94.5%
playoff
8.8
proj wins
470.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.7%
Seed 2:
2.6%
Seed 3:
6.9%
Seed 4:
19.0%
Seed 5:
54.2%
Seed 6:
11.0%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
colglj
2-2 • 10 left
49.8%
playoff
8.4
proj wins
431.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.2%
Seed 4:
1.3%
Seed 5:
8.2%
Seed 6:
40.1%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
khoa4101
2-2 • 10 left
15.5%
playoff
5.4
proj wins
387.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.4%
Seed 5:
2.9%
Seed 6:
12.0%
Magic Number
10 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(4.5% chance)
• You must win 5 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 7 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 103.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 121.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 109.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 103.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 83.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 44.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 23.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 20.9 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 13.0)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 24.6)
8-6
(3.3% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 103.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 121.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 109.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 103.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 83.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 44.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 23.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 20.9 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 13.0)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 24.6)
9-5
(2.5% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 103.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 121.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 109.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 103.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 83.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 44.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 23.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 20.9 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 13.0)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 24.6)
10-4
(1.8% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 103.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 121.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 109.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 103.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 83.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 44.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 23.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 20.9 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 13.0)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 24.6)
11-3
(1.8% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 103.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 121.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 109.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 103.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 83.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 44.0 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 23.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 20.9 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 13.0)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 24.6)
12-2
(1.5% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 103.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 121.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 109.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 103.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 83.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 44.0 points
8
PtownWarren
1-3 • 10 left
4.8%
playoff
4.9
proj wins
410.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 5:
0.4%
Seed 6:
4.3%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(1.6% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 7 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 80.5 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 98.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 86.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 80.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 60.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 21.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.9)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 2.2)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 47.5)
8-6
(1.1% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 80.5 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 98.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 86.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 80.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 60.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 21.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.9)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 2.2)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 47.5)
9-5
(0.9% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 80.5 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 98.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 86.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 80.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 60.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 21.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.9)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 2.2)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 47.5)
10-4
(0.6% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 80.5 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 98.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 86.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 80.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 60.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 21.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.9)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 2.2)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 47.5)
11-3
(0.6% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 80.5 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 98.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 86.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 80.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 60.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 21.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.9)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 2.2)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 35.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 47.5)
9
chenry3
1-3 • 10 left
19.0%
playoff
4.4
proj wins
409.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.1%
Seed 4:
0.6%
Seed 5:
3.7%
Seed 6:
14.6%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(6.2% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 7 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 81.6 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 99.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 87.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 81.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 61.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 22.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 1.2 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
8-6
(4.6% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 81.6 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 99.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 87.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 81.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 61.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 22.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 1.2 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
9-5
(3.4% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 81.6 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 99.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 87.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 81.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 61.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 22.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 1.2 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
10-4
(2.5% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 81.6 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 99.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 87.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 81.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 61.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 22.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 1.2 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
11-3
(2.3% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 81.6 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 99.5 points
• denty425: outscore them by 87.7 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 81.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 61.2 points
• colglj: outscore them by 22.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 1.2 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 1.1)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.4)
10
danr2049
1-3 • 10 left
12.7%
playoff
5.5
proj wins
408.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.2%
Seed 5:
1.8%
Seed 6:
10.7%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(4.1% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 7 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.7 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 100.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 88.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.3 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 62.3 points
• colglj: outscore them by 23.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 20.8)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 2.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 1.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.8)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.3)
8-6
(3.1% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.7 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 100.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 88.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.3 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 62.3 points
• colglj: outscore them by 23.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 20.8)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 2.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 1.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.8)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.3)
9-5
(2.3% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.7 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 100.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 88.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.3 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 62.3 points
• colglj: outscore them by 23.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 20.8)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 2.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 1.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.8)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.3)
10-4
(1.7% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.7 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 100.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 88.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.3 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 62.3 points
• colglj: outscore them by 23.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 20.8)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 2.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 1.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.8)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.3)
11-3
(1.5% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.7 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 100.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 88.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 82.3 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 62.3 points
• colglj: outscore them by 23.3 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 20.8)
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 2.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 1.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.8)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 45.3)
11
JonnyWarren22
1-3 • 10 left
4.1%
playoff
4.0
proj wins
374.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 5:
0.6%
Seed 6:
3.4%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(1.3% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 7 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 116.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 134.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 122.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 116.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 96.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 57.0 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 36.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 35.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 33.9 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 11.6)
8-6
(1.0% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 116.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 134.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 122.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 116.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 96.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 57.0 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 36.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 35.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 33.9 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 11.6)
9-5
(0.7% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 116.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 134.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 122.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 116.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 96.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 57.0 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 36.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 35.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 33.9 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 11.6)
10-4
(0.5% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 116.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 134.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 122.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 116.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 96.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 57.0 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 36.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 35.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 33.9 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 11.6)
11-3
(0.5% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 116.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 134.3 points
• denty425: outscore them by 122.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 116.1 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 96.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 57.0 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 36.0 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 35.0 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 33.9 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 11.6)
12
ryanvhill
1-3 • 10 left
0.3%
playoff
4.7
proj wins
363.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 6:
0.3%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 6 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 7 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 128.0 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 145.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 134.1 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 127.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 107.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 68.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 24.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 47.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 46.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 45.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 11.7 points
8-6
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 7 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 128.0 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 145.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 134.1 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 127.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 107.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 68.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 24.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 47.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 46.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 45.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 11.7 points
9-5
(0.1% chance)
• You must win 8 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 128.0 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 145.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 134.1 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 127.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 107.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 68.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 24.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 47.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 46.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 45.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 11.7 points
10-4
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 9 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 128.0 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 145.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 134.1 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 127.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 107.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 68.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 24.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 47.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 46.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 45.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 11.7 points
11-3
(0.0% chance)
• You must win 10 of 10 remaining games
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 10 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 10 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 10 remaining
• aaronhill: outscore them by 128.0 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 145.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 134.1 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 127.7 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 107.6 points
• colglj: outscore them by 68.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 24.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 47.6 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 46.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 45.4 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 11.7 points
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.