Ridin' The Waiver
2025 Season
Week 10
Last scored: Week 10
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
Viewing Historical Week 5
Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 5
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
iammclargehuge
|
4-1
9 games left
|
664.5
|
100.0%
96.8% bye
|
11.0
(4-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
aaronhill
|
4-1
9 games left
|
587.4
|
96.7%
46.4% bye
|
9.6
(4-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
OBRightKanobi
|
4-1
9 games left
|
580.2
|
96.9%
34.3% bye
|
9.9
(4-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
denty425
|
3-2
9 games left
|
578.6
|
90.2%
15.1% bye
|
7.9
(3-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
colglj
|
3-2
9 games left
|
533.8
|
50.5%
1.3% bye
|
9.6
(3-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
khoa4101
|
3-2
9 games left
|
523.1
|
41.6%
1.6% bye
|
7.4
(3-12)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
bcdub49
|
2-3
9 games left
|
572.7
|
67.7%
3.6% bye
|
7.0
(2-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
danr2049
|
2-3
9 games left
|
517.3
|
18.1%
0.2% bye
|
7.1
(2-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
ryanvhill
|
2-3
9 games left
|
501.3
|
9.4%
0.1% bye
|
6.4
(2-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
chenry3
|
1-4
9 games left
|
539.2
|
22.1%
0.5% bye
|
3.7
(1-10)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
PtownWarren
|
1-4
9 games left
|
509.4
|
1.5%
|
4.5
(1-10)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
JonnyWarren22
|
1-4
9 games left
|
504.9
|
5.4%
0.1% bye
|
4.2
(1-10)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
iammclargehuge
4-1 • 9 left
100.0%
playoff
11.0
proj wins
664.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
85.9%
Seed 2:
10.9%
Seed 3:
2.4%
Seed 4:
0.6%
Seed 5:
0.1%
Magic Number
7 wins
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
aaronhill
4-1 • 9 left
96.7%
playoff
9.6
proj wins
587.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
7.0%
Seed 2:
39.4%
Seed 3:
23.4%
Seed 4:
14.9%
Seed 5:
7.9%
Seed 6:
4.1%
Magic Number
7 wins
To clinch playoff spot
3
OBRightKanobi
4-1 • 9 left
96.9%
playoff
9.9
proj wins
580.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
5.2%
Seed 2:
29.1%
Seed 3:
30.3%
Seed 4:
17.9%
Seed 5:
10.1%
Seed 6:
4.3%
Magic Number
7 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
denty425
3-2 • 9 left
90.2%
playoff
7.9
proj wins
578.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
1.5%
Seed 2:
13.7%
Seed 3:
23.7%
Seed 4:
26.1%
Seed 5:
15.9%
Seed 6:
9.4%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
colglj
3-2 • 9 left
50.5%
playoff
9.6
proj wins
533.8
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.1%
Seed 2:
1.1%
Seed 3:
4.2%
Seed 4:
8.8%
Seed 5:
15.8%
Seed 6:
20.3%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
khoa4101
3-2 • 9 left
41.6%
playoff
7.4
proj wins
523.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.1%
Seed 2:
1.5%
Seed 3:
4.5%
Seed 4:
7.8%
Seed 5:
12.8%
Seed 6:
15.0%
Magic Number
8 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
bcdub49
2-3 • 9 left
67.7%
playoff
7.0
proj wins
572.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
0.2%
Seed 2:
3.4%
Seed 3:
8.6%
Seed 4:
15.6%
Seed 5:
21.4%
Seed 6:
18.4%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(21.4% chance)
• You must win 5 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 91.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 14.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 7.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 6.0 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.9)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.6)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.4)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 71.4)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.5)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 63.4)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 67.8)
8-6
(15.9% chance)
• You must win 6 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 91.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 14.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 7.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 6.0 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.9)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.6)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.4)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 71.4)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.5)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 63.4)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 67.8)
9-5
(11.8% chance)
• You must win 7 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 91.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 14.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 7.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 6.0 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.9)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.6)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.4)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 71.4)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.5)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 63.4)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 67.8)
10-4
(10.2% chance)
• You must win 8 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 91.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 14.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 7.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 6.0 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.9)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.6)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.4)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 71.4)
• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 33.5)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 63.4)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 67.8)
11-3
(8.5% chance)
• You must win 9 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 91.9 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 14.8 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 7.6 points
• denty425: outscore them by 6.0 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.9)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.6)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.4)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 71.4)
8
danr2049
2-3 • 9 left
18.1%
playoff
7.1
proj wins
517.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.2%
Seed 3:
0.7%
Seed 4:
2.5%
Seed 5:
5.4%
Seed 6:
9.3%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(5.7% chance)
• You must win 5 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 147.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 70.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 63.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 61.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 16.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 5.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 55.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 12.4)
8-6
(4.2% chance)
• You must win 6 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 147.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 70.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 63.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 61.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 16.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 5.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 55.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 12.4)
9-5
(3.1% chance)
• You must win 7 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 147.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 70.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 63.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 61.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 16.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 5.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 55.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 12.4)
10-4
(2.7% chance)
• You must win 8 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 147.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 70.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 63.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 61.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 16.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 5.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 55.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 22.0 points
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.0)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 12.4)
11-3
(2.3% chance)
• You must win 9 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 147.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 70.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 63.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 61.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 16.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 5.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 55.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.1)
9
ryanvhill
2-3 • 9 left
9.4%
playoff
6.4
proj wins
501.3
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.3%
Seed 4:
1.5%
Seed 5:
2.5%
Seed 6:
5.0%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(3.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 163.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 86.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 79.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 77.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 32.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 21.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 71.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 16.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 38.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 8.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 3.8 points
8-6
(2.2% chance)
• You must win 6 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 163.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 86.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 79.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 77.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 32.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 21.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 71.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 16.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 38.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 8.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 3.8 points
9-5
(1.6% chance)
• You must win 7 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 163.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 86.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 79.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 77.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 32.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 21.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 71.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 16.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 38.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 8.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 3.8 points
10-4
(1.4% chance)
• You must win 8 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 163.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 86.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 79.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 77.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 32.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 21.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 71.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 16.2 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 38.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 8.2 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 3.8 points
11-3
(1.2% chance)
• You must win 9 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 163.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 86.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 79.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 77.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 32.6 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 21.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 71.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 16.2 points
10
chenry3
1-4 • 9 left
22.1%
playoff
3.7
proj wins
539.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.5%
Seed 3:
1.6%
Seed 4:
3.5%
Seed 5:
6.2%
Seed 6:
10.3%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(8.1% chance)
• You must win 6 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 125.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 48.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 41.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 39.5 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 5.5)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.2)
• bcdub49: outscore them by 33.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 29.9)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.3)
8-6
(6.0% chance)
• You must win 7 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 125.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 48.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 41.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 39.5 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 5.5)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.2)
• bcdub49: outscore them by 33.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 29.9)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.3)
9-5
(4.4% chance)
• You must win 8 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 125.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 48.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 41.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 39.5 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 5.5)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.2)
• bcdub49: outscore them by 33.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 29.9)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.3)
10-4
(3.6% chance)
• You must win 9 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 125.4 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 48.3 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 41.1 points
• denty425: outscore them by 39.5 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 5.5)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.2)
• bcdub49: outscore them by 33.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 21.9)
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 38.0)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 29.9)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 34.3)
11
PtownWarren
1-4 • 9 left
1.5%
playoff
4.5
proj wins
509.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.1%
Seed 5:
0.3%
Seed 6:
1.0%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(0.6% chance)
• You must win 6 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 155.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 78.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 71.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 69.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 24.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 63.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 8.1 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 30.0 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 4.4)
8-6
(0.4% chance)
• You must win 7 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 155.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 78.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 71.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 69.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 24.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 63.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 8.1 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 30.0 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 4.4)
9-5
(0.3% chance)
• You must win 8 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 155.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 78.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 71.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 69.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 24.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 63.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 8.1 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 30.0 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 4.4)
10-4
(0.2% chance)
• You must win 9 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 155.3 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 78.2 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 71.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 69.4 points
• colglj: outscore them by 24.5 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 13.8 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 63.5 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 8.1 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.1)
• chenry3: outscore them by 30.0 points
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 4.4)
12
JonnyWarren22
1-4 • 9 left
5.4%
playoff
4.2
proj wins
504.9
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.2%
Seed 4:
0.7%
Seed 5:
1.6%
Seed 6:
2.8%
Playoff Scenarios
7-7
(2.0% chance)
• You must win 6 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 6 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 159.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 75.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 73.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 28.9 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 67.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 3.7)
• chenry3: outscore them by 34.4 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 4.5 points
8-6
(1.4% chance)
• You must win 7 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 5 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 159.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 75.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 73.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 28.9 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 67.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 3.7)
• chenry3: outscore them by 34.4 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 4.5 points
9-5
(1.1% chance)
• You must win 8 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 159.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 75.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 73.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 28.9 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 67.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 3.7)
• chenry3: outscore them by 34.4 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 4.5 points
10-4
(0.9% chance)
• You must win 9 of 9 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 3 of 9 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 9 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 9 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 159.7 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 82.6 points
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 75.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 73.8 points
• colglj: outscore them by 28.9 points
• khoa4101: outscore them by 18.2 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 67.9 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 12.5 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 3.7)
• chenry3: outscore them by 34.4 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 4.5 points
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.