Ridin' The Waiver

2025 Season

Week 17

Last scored: Week 17

Playoff Calculator

Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations

Format: Top 6 teams advance

Playoffs: Start Week 15

Tiebreaker: points_for

Weeks:

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Showing final regular season playoff odds (Week 14)

Viewing Historical Week 13

Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 13

View Final Regular Season

Current Seed	Team	Record	Points For	Playoff %	Proj. Wins
1 BYE	OBRightKanobi	10-3 1 games left	1510.3	100.0% 99.8% bye	10.6 (10-11)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 77.3% Seed 2: 22.5% Seed 3: 0.2% Most Likely Seed: #1 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Win 1 more to clinch bye week Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 11-3 Worst Case: 10-4 Opp. Strength: 53.6 Points Against: 1324.6 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🛡️ Hope Bye Week Warren beats False Positive - protect your lead and keep them at bay Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🛡️ Hope Rome if you want to beats Tits McGee - protect your lead and keep them at bay Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 💪 Kupp‑and‑Play over Warren G League - keep that cushion comfortable WyldStallyns VS Team TBD Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
2 BYE	iammclargehuge	9-4 1 games left	1601.1	100.0% 75.3% bye	9.7 (9-10)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 22.4% Seed 2: 52.9% Seed 3: 24.7% Most Likely Seed: #2 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 10-4 Worst Case: 9-5 Opp. Strength: 53.1 Points Against: 1456.5 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🎯 Bye Week Warren needs to take down False Positive - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 👀 Pull for Ptown Warren - OBRightKanobi is one win ahead and looking dangerous Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 🛡️ Hope Kupp‑and‑Play beats Warren G League - protect your lead and keep them at bay WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 💪 WyldStallyns over Team TBD - keep that cushion comfortable chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
3	aaronhill	9-4 1 games left	1439.5	100.0% 24.9% bye	9.4 (9-10)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 0.3% Seed 2: 24.6% Seed 3: 45.3% Seed 4: 29.8% Most Likely Seed: #3 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 10-4 Worst Case: 9-5 Opp. Strength: 55.7 Points Against: 1273.2 Who to Root For Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🎯 Rome if you want to needs to take down Tits McGee - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 👀 Pull for Ptown Warren - OBRightKanobi is one win ahead and looking dangerous Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 🛡️ Hope Kupp‑and‑Play beats Warren G League - protect your lead and keep them at bay WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 💪 WyldStallyns over Team TBD - keep that cushion comfortable chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
4	bcdub49	8-5 1 games left	1480.2	100.0%	8.6 (8-9)
Seed Probabilities Seed 3: 29.8% Seed 4: 70.0% Seed 5: 0.2% Most Likely Seed: #4 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 9-5 Worst Case: 8-6 Opp. Strength: 50.0 Points Against: 1353.1 Who to Root For Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 📢 Go Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 👀 Pull for Bye Week Warren - False Positive is one win ahead and looking dangerous Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 👀 Pull for Rome if you want to - Tits McGee is one win ahead and looking dangerous WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 🛡️ Hope WyldStallyns beats Team TBD - protect your lead and keep them at bay chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
5	danr2049	7-6 1 games left	1411.6	92.3%	7.6 (7-8)
Seed Probabilities Seed 4: 0.2% Seed 5: 72.9% Seed 6: 19.2% Most Likely Seed: #5 Clinching & Elimination No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 8-6 Worst Case: 7-7 Opp. Strength: 53.6 Points Against: 1428.8 Who to Root For Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 📢 Go Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 📢 Go Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 👀 Pull for Kupp‑and‑Play - Warren G League is one win ahead and looking dangerous chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
6	denty425	6-7 1 games left	1543.9	65.3%	6.6 (6-7)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 18.0% Seed 6: 47.3% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: 1 Win 1 more to guarantee playoffs Win 1 more game to clinch Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 7-7 Worst Case: 6-8 Opp. Strength: 53.6 Points Against: 1480.0 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🚨 ROOT FOR Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 📢 Go Kupp‑and‑Play! Warren G League is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 🎯 Team TBD needs to take down WyldStallyns - you're tied and every game matters for seeding chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
7	PtownWarren	6-7 1 games left	1433.8	30.0%	6.6 (6-7)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 8.9% Seed 6: 21.1% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: 1 Win 1 more to guarantee playoffs Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 7-7 (16.4% chance) • You must win 1 of 1 remaining games • danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.1) • denty425: outscore them by 110.3 points • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 110.8) Scenario 2: 6-8 (13.6% chance) • You must win 0 of 1 remaining games • denty425 must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • colglj must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • denty425: outscore them by 110.3 points • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 110.8) • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 120.7) Win 1 more game to clinch Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 7-7 Worst Case: 6-8 Opp. Strength: 53.8 Points Against: 1468.3 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🚨 ROOT FOR Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 📢 Go Kupp‑and‑Play! Warren G League is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 🎯 Team TBD needs to take down WyldStallyns - you're tied and every game matters for seeding chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
8	colglj	6-7 1 games left	1322.9	12.3%	6.4 (6-7)
Seed Probabilities Seed 6: 12.3% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: 1 Win 1 more to guarantee playoffs Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 7-7 (6.7% chance) • You must win 1 of 1 remaining games • danr2049: outscore them by 88.8 points • denty425: outscore them by 221.1 points • PtownWarren: outscore them by 110.9 points Scenario 2: 6-8 (5.6% chance) • You must win 0 of 1 remaining games • denty425 must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • denty425: outscore them by 221.1 points • PtownWarren: outscore them by 110.9 points • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.9) Win 1 more game to clinch Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 7-7 Worst Case: 6-8 Opp. Strength: 56.1 Points Against: 1383.4 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🚨 ROOT FOR Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 📢 Go Kupp‑and‑Play! Warren G League is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
9	ryanvhill	5-8 1 games left	1313.0	0.0%	5.4 (5-6)
Seed Probabilities Most Likely Seed: #0 Clinching & Elimination Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 6-8 (0.0% chance) • You must win 1 of 1 remaining games • denty425 must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • colglj must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining • denty425: outscore them by 231.0 points • PtownWarren: outscore them by 120.8 points • colglj: outscore them by 10.0 points No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 6-8 Worst Case: 5-9 Opp. Strength: 53.6 Points Against: 1478.2 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🚨 ROOT FOR Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 📢 Go WyldStallyns! Team TBD is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
10	chenry3	4-9 1 games left	1436.0	0.0%	4.5 (4-5)
Seed Probabilities Most Likely Seed: #0 Clinching & Elimination Status: Eliminated Mathematically eliminated from playoff contention Mathematically Eliminated 8 teams already have more than your maximum possible 5 wins No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 5-9 Worst Case: 4-10 Opp. Strength: 52.1 Points Against: 1564.0 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🚨 ROOT FOR Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR WyldStallyns! Team TBD is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 6 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! Warren G League is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler
11	JonnyWarren22	4-9 1 games left	1385.9	0.0%	4.5 (4-5)
Seed Probabilities Most Likely Seed: #0 Clinching & Elimination Status: Eliminated Mathematically eliminated from playoff contention Mathematically Eliminated 8 teams already have more than your maximum possible 5 wins No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 5-9 Worst Case: 4-10 Opp. Strength: 53.6 Points Against: 1507.8 Who to Root For WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR WyldStallyns! Team TBD is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 6 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! Warren G League is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler chenry3 VS Team Nguyen'ing Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
12	khoa4101	4-9 1 games left	1262.1	0.0%	4.4 (4-5)
Seed Probabilities Most Likely Seed: #0 Clinching & Elimination Status: Eliminated Mathematically eliminated from playoff contention Mathematically Eliminated 8 teams already have more than your maximum possible 5 wins No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 1 Best Case: 5-9 Worst Case: 4-10 Opp. Strength: 53.6 Points Against: 1422.5 Who to Root For False Positive VS Bye Week Warren 🚨 ROOT FOR Bye Week Warren ! False Positive is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler WyldStallyns VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR WyldStallyns! Team TBD is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 6 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! Tits McGee is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Warren G League VS Kupp‑and‑Play 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! Warren G League is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler

OBRightKanobi

10-3 • 1 left

BYE

100.0%

playoff

10.6

proj wins

1510.3

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

77.3%

Seed 2:

22.5%

Seed 3:

0.2%

iammclargehuge

9-4 • 1 left

BYE

100.0%

playoff

9.7

proj wins

1601.1

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

22.4%

Seed 2:

52.9%

Seed 3:

24.7%

aaronhill

9-4 • 1 left

100.0%

playoff

9.4

proj wins

1439.5

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

0.3%

Seed 2:

24.6%

Seed 3:

45.3%

Seed 4:

29.8%

bcdub49

8-5 • 1 left

100.0%

playoff

8.6

proj wins

1480.2

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 3:

29.8%

Seed 4:

70.0%

Seed 5:

0.2%

danr2049

7-6 • 1 left

92.3%

playoff

7.6

proj wins

1411.6

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 4:

0.2%

Seed 5:

72.9%

Seed 6:

19.2%

denty425

6-7 • 1 left

65.3%

playoff

6.6

proj wins

1543.9

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

18.0%

Seed 6:

47.3%

Magic Number

1 win

To clinch playoff spot

PtownWarren

6-7 • 1 left

30.0%

playoff

6.6

proj wins

1433.8

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

8.9%

Seed 6:

21.1%

Magic Number

1 win

To clinch playoff spot

Playoff Scenarios

7-7 (16.4% chance)

• You must win 1 of 1 remaining games

• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.1)

• denty425: outscore them by 110.3 points

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 110.8)

6-8 (13.6% chance)

• You must win 0 of 1 remaining games

• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining

• colglj must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining

• denty425: outscore them by 110.3 points

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 110.8)

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 120.7)

colglj

6-7 • 1 left

12.3%

playoff

6.4

proj wins

1322.9

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 6:

12.3%

Magic Number

1 win

To clinch playoff spot

Playoff Scenarios

7-7 (6.7% chance)

• You must win 1 of 1 remaining games

• danr2049: outscore them by 88.8 points

• denty425: outscore them by 221.1 points

• PtownWarren: outscore them by 110.9 points

6-8 (5.6% chance)

• You must win 0 of 1 remaining games

• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining

• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 1 remaining

• denty425: outscore them by 221.1 points

• PtownWarren: outscore them by 110.9 points

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.9)

ryanvhill

5-8 • 1 left

0.0%

playoff

5.4

proj wins

1313.0

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Playoff Scenarios

chenry3

4-9 • 1 left

0.0%

playoff

4.5

proj wins

1436.0

pts for

Seed Probabilities

JonnyWarren22

4-9 • 1 left

0.0%

playoff

4.5

proj wins

1385.9

pts for

Seed Probabilities

khoa4101

4-9 • 1 left

0.0%

playoff

4.4

proj wins

1262.1

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Understanding Your Playoff Chances

Playoff %

Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.

Magic Number

Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.

Playoff Scenarios

Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.

Current Seed

Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.

Projected Wins

Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).

Mathematical Elimination

Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.

Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.

Ridin' The Waiver

Playoff Calculator

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Viewing Historical Week 13

Seed Probabilities

Clinching & Elimination

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Clinching & Elimination

Schedule Analysis

Who to Root For

OBRightKanobi

Seed Probabilities

iammclargehuge

Seed Probabilities

aaronhill

Seed Probabilities

bcdub49

Seed Probabilities

danr2049

Seed Probabilities

denty425

Seed Probabilities

PtownWarren

Seed Probabilities

Playoff Scenarios

colglj

Seed Probabilities

Playoff Scenarios

ryanvhill

Seed Probabilities

Playoff Scenarios

chenry3

Seed Probabilities

JonnyWarren22

Seed Probabilities

khoa4101

Seed Probabilities

Understanding Your Playoff Chances