Ridin' The Waiver

2025 Season

Week 17

Last scored: Week 17

Playoff Calculator

Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations

Format: Top 6 teams advance

Playoffs: Start Week 15

Tiebreaker: points_for

Weeks:

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Showing final regular season playoff odds (Week 14)

Viewing Historical Week 12

Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 12

View Final Regular Season

Current Seed	Team	Record	Points For	Playoff %	Proj. Wins
1 BYE	iammclargehuge	9-3 2 games left	1503.7	100.0% 83.1% bye	10.6 (9-11)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 58.6% Seed 2: 24.5% Seed 3: 13.7% Seed 4: 3.2% Most Likely Seed: #1 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 11-3 Worst Case: 9-5 Opp. Strength: 54.4 Points Against: 1319.7 Who to Root For Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🎯 Kupp‑and‑Play needs to take down OBRightKanobi - you're tied and every game matters for seeding False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🎯 Team Nguyen'ing needs to take down False Positive - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🛡️ Hope Ptown Warren beats Warren G League - protect your lead and keep them at bay WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
2 BYE	OBRightKanobi	9-3 2 games left	1408.0	100.0% 67.2% bye	10.1 (9-11)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 25.6% Seed 2: 41.7% Seed 3: 23.9% Seed 4: 8.8% Most Likely Seed: #2 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 11-3 Worst Case: 9-5 Opp. Strength: 58.1 Points Against: 1243.1 Who to Root For Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🎯 Team TBD needs to take down Tits McGee - you're tied and every game matters for seeding False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🎯 Team Nguyen'ing needs to take down False Positive - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🛡️ Hope Ptown Warren beats Warren G League - protect your lead and keep them at bay WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
3	aaronhill	9-3 2 games left	1357.8	100.0% 41.6% bye	10.0 (9-11)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 15.1% Seed 2: 26.5% Seed 3: 36.4% Seed 4: 22.0% Most Likely Seed: #3 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 11-3 Worst Case: 9-5 Opp. Strength: 55.2 Points Against: 1176.0 Who to Root For Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🎯 Team TBD needs to take down Tits McGee - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🎯 Kupp‑and‑Play needs to take down OBRightKanobi - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🛡️ Hope Ptown Warren beats Warren G League - protect your lead and keep them at bay WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
4	bcdub49	8-4 2 games left	1376.0	100.0% 8.1% bye	9.5 (8-10)
Seed Probabilities Seed 1: 0.7% Seed 2: 7.3% Seed 3: 26.0% Seed 4: 65.9% Most Likely Seed: #4 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: Clinched! Playoff spot secured Clinched playoff spot Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 10-4 Worst Case: 8-6 Opp. Strength: 55.6 Points Against: 1240.9 Who to Root For Tits McGee VS Team TBD 👀 Pull for Team TBD - Tits McGee is one win ahead and looking dangerous Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 👀 Pull for Kupp‑and‑Play - OBRightKanobi is one win ahead and looking dangerous False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 👀 Pull for Team Nguyen'ing - False Positive is one win ahead and looking dangerous WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 💪 Rome if you want to over WyldStallyns - keep that cushion comfortable chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
5	danr2049	6-6 2 games left	1274.8	65.5%	7.2 (6-8)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 43.3% Seed 6: 22.3% Most Likely Seed: #5 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: 1 Win 1 more to guarantee playoffs Win 1 more game to clinch Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 8-6 Worst Case: 6-8 Opp. Strength: 58.1 Points Against: 1331.4 Who to Root For Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 📢 Go Ptown Warren! Warren G League is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 🎯 Rome if you want to needs to take down WyldStallyns - you're tied and every game matters for seeding chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren 💪 Bye Week Warren over chenry3 - keep that cushion comfortable
6	colglj	6-6 2 games left	1221.5	49.0%	7.1 (6-8)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 23.2% Seed 6: 25.8% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Magic Number: 1 Win 1 more to guarantee playoffs Win 1 more game to clinch Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 8-6 Worst Case: 6-8 Opp. Strength: 58.3 Points Against: 1243.4 Who to Root For Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR Team TBD! Tits McGee is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 📢 Go Ptown Warren! Warren G League is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren 💪 Bye Week Warren over chenry3 - keep that cushion comfortable
7	denty425	5-7 2 games left	1403.9	58.2%	6.0 (5-7)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 24.0% Seed 6: 34.2% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 6-8 (32.3% chance) • You must win 1 of 2 remaining games • colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining • PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 129.1) • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 182.3) • PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 82.4) • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 172.3) • chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 78.6) Scenario 2: 7-7 (25.9% chance) • You must win 2 of 2 remaining games • danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • colglj must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 129.1) • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 182.3) • PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 82.4) • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 172.3) No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 7-7 Worst Case: 5-9 Opp. Strength: 58.1 Points Against: 1378.7 Who to Root For Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! Warren G League is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR Team TBD! Tits McGee is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren 🛡️ Hope Bye Week Warren beats chenry3 - protect your lead and keep them at bay
8	PtownWarren	5-7 2 games left	1321.5	18.0%	6.2 (5-7)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 7.6% Seed 6: 10.3% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 6-8 (10.0% chance) • You must win 1 of 2 remaining games • colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining • denty425 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.7) • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 100.0) • denty425: outscore them by 82.5 points • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 90.0) • chenry3: outscore them by 3.9 points Scenario 2: 7-7 (8.0% chance) • You must win 2 of 2 remaining games • danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • colglj must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.7) • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 100.0) • denty425: outscore them by 82.5 points • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 90.0) No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 7-7 Worst Case: 5-9 Opp. Strength: 58.4 Points Against: 1364.1 Who to Root For Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR Team TBD! Tits McGee is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 🎯 WyldStallyns needs to take down Rome if you want to - you're tied and every game matters for seeding chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren 🛡️ Hope Bye Week Warren beats chenry3 - protect your lead and keep them at bay
9	ryanvhill	5-7 2 games left	1231.5	7.2%	5.9 (5-7)
Seed Probabilities Seed 5: 1.9% Seed 6: 5.4% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 6-8 (4.0% chance) • You must win 1 of 2 remaining games • colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining • denty425 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: outscore them by 43.4 points • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.0) • denty425: outscore them by 172.4 points • PtownWarren: outscore them by 90.1 points • chenry3: outscore them by 93.9 points Scenario 2: 7-7 (3.2% chance) • You must win 2 of 2 remaining games • danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • colglj must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: outscore them by 43.4 points • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.0) • denty425: outscore them by 172.4 points • PtownWarren: outscore them by 90.1 points No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 7-7 Worst Case: 5-9 Opp. Strength: 59.1 Points Against: 1375.8 Who to Root For Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! Warren G League is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR Team TBD! Tits McGee is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 🎯 WyldStallyns needs to take down Rome if you want to - you're tied and every game matters for seeding chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren 🛡️ Hope Bye Week Warren beats chenry3 - protect your lead and keep them at bay
10	chenry3	4-8 2 games left	1325.3	2.1%	4.9 (4-6)
Seed Probabilities Seed 6: 2.1% Most Likely Seed: #6 Clinching & Elimination Playoff Scenarios Scenario 1: 6-8 (2.1% chance) • You must win 2 of 2 remaining games • colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining • denty425 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining • danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 50.5) • colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 103.8) • denty425: outscore them by 78.7 points • PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 3.8) • ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 93.8) No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 6-8 Worst Case: 4-10 Opp. Strength: 56.0 Points Against: 1434.8 Who to Root For Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! Warren G League is crushing it with 4 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Team TBD 🚨 ROOT FOR Team TBD! Tits McGee is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 📢 Go Rome if you want to! WyldStallyns is 2 wins ahead and sitting pretty - let's change that
11	JonnyWarren22	3-9 2 games left	1256.6	0.0%	3.8 (3-5)
Seed Probabilities Most Likely Seed: #0 Clinching & Elimination Status: Eliminated Mathematically eliminated from playoff contention Mathematically Eliminated 6 teams already have more than your maximum possible 5 wins No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 5-9 Worst Case: 3-11 Opp. Strength: 58.1 Points Against: 1397.1 Who to Root For WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! WyldStallyns is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! Warren G League is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 6 more wins than you - time to play spoiler False Positive VS Team Nguyen'ing 🚨 ROOT FOR Team Nguyen'ing! False Positive is crushing it with 6 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Tits McGee VS Team TBD Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment
12	khoa4101	3-9 2 games left	1165.0	0.0%	3.5 (3-5)
Seed Probabilities Most Likely Seed: #0 Clinching & Elimination Status: Eliminated Mathematically eliminated from playoff contention Mathematically Eliminated 6 teams already have more than your maximum possible 5 wins No clinch scenarios available Schedule Analysis Remaining Games: 2 Best Case: 5-9 Worst Case: 3-11 Opp. Strength: 58.1 Points Against: 1340.7 Who to Root For WyldStallyns VS Rome if you want to 🚨 ROOT FOR Rome if you want to! WyldStallyns is crushing it with 3 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Ptown Warren VS Warren G League 🚨 ROOT FOR Ptown Warren! Warren G League is crushing it with 5 more wins than you - time to play spoiler Kupp‑and‑Play VS OBRightKanobi 🚨 ROOT FOR Kupp‑and‑Play! OBRightKanobi is crushing it with 6 more wins than you - time to play spoiler chenry3 VS Bye Week Warren 🎯 chenry3 needs to take down Bye Week Warren - you're tied and every game matters for seeding Tits McGee VS Team TBD Grab some popcorn - this one's just for entertainment

iammclargehuge

9-3 • 2 left

BYE

100.0%

playoff

10.6

proj wins

1503.7

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

58.6%

Seed 2:

24.5%

Seed 3:

13.7%

Seed 4:

3.2%

OBRightKanobi

9-3 • 2 left

BYE

100.0%

playoff

10.1

proj wins

1408.0

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

25.6%

Seed 2:

41.7%

Seed 3:

23.9%

Seed 4:

8.8%

aaronhill

9-3 • 2 left

100.0%

playoff

10.0

proj wins

1357.8

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

15.1%

Seed 2:

26.5%

Seed 3:

36.4%

Seed 4:

22.0%

bcdub49

8-4 • 2 left

100.0%

playoff

9.5

proj wins

1376.0

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 1:

0.7%

Seed 2:

7.3%

Seed 3:

26.0%

Seed 4:

65.9%

danr2049

6-6 • 2 left

65.5%

playoff

7.2

proj wins

1274.8

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

43.3%

Seed 6:

22.3%

Magic Number

1 win

To clinch playoff spot

colglj

6-6 • 2 left

49.0%

playoff

7.1

proj wins

1221.5

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

23.2%

Seed 6:

25.8%

Magic Number

1 win

To clinch playoff spot

denty425

5-7 • 2 left

58.2%

playoff

6.0

proj wins

1403.9

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

24.0%

Seed 6:

34.2%

Playoff Scenarios

6-8 (32.3% chance)

• You must win 1 of 2 remaining games

• colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining

• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 129.1)

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 182.3)

• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 82.4)

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 172.3)

• chenry3: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 78.6)

7-7 (25.9% chance)

• You must win 2 of 2 remaining games

• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• colglj must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 129.1)

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 182.3)

• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 82.4)

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 172.3)

PtownWarren

5-7 • 2 left

18.0%

playoff

6.2

proj wins

1321.5

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

7.6%

Seed 6:

10.3%

Playoff Scenarios

6-8 (10.0% chance)

• You must win 1 of 2 remaining games

• colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining

• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.7)

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 100.0)

• denty425: outscore them by 82.5 points

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 90.0)

• chenry3: outscore them by 3.9 points

7-7 (8.0% chance)

• You must win 2 of 2 remaining games

• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• colglj must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 46.7)

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 100.0)

• denty425: outscore them by 82.5 points

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 90.0)

ryanvhill

5-7 • 2 left

7.2%

playoff

5.9

proj wins

1231.5

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 5:

1.9%

Seed 6:

5.4%

Playoff Scenarios

6-8 (4.0% chance)

• You must win 1 of 2 remaining games

• colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining

• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: outscore them by 43.4 points

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.0)

• denty425: outscore them by 172.4 points

• PtownWarren: outscore them by 90.1 points

• chenry3: outscore them by 93.9 points

7-7 (3.2% chance)

• You must win 2 of 2 remaining games

• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• colglj must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: outscore them by 43.4 points

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 10.0)

• denty425: outscore them by 172.4 points

• PtownWarren: outscore them by 90.1 points

chenry3

4-8 • 2 left

2.1%

playoff

4.9

proj wins

1325.3

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Seed 6:

2.1%

Playoff Scenarios

6-8 (2.1% chance)

• You must win 2 of 2 remaining games

• colglj must lose at least 2 of 2 remaining

• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 2 remaining

• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 50.5)

• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 103.8)

• denty425: outscore them by 78.7 points

• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 3.8)

• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 93.8)

JonnyWarren22

3-9 • 2 left

0.0%

playoff

3.8

proj wins

1256.6

pts for

Seed Probabilities

khoa4101

3-9 • 2 left

0.0%

playoff

3.5

proj wins

1165.0

pts for

Seed Probabilities

Understanding Your Playoff Chances

Playoff %

Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.

Magic Number

Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.

Playoff Scenarios

Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.

Current Seed

Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.

Projected Wins

Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).

Mathematical Elimination

Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.

Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.

Ridin' The Waiver

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iammclargehuge

Seed Probabilities

OBRightKanobi

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aaronhill

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bcdub49

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danr2049

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