Ridin' The Waiver
2025 Season
Week 10
Last scored: Week 10
Playoff Calculator
Real-time playoff odds powered by advanced simulations
Monte Carlo Simulations
Thousands of season simulations accounting for team strength and schedule
Schedule Validation
Max-flow algorithms verify scenario feasibility against actual matchups
Detailed Scenarios
Specific paths showing exactly what needs to happen for playoff qualification
Format: Top 6 teams advance
Playoffs: Start Week 15
Tiebreaker: points_for
Viewing Historical Week 9
Playoff odds as they appeared after Week 9
|
Current Seed
|
Team | Record |
Points For
|
Playoff % | Proj. Wins | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
BYE
|
OBRightKanobi
|
8-1
5 games left
|
1102.6
|
100.0%
81.5% bye
|
11.9
(8-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
2
BYE
|
aaronhill
|
8-1
5 games left
|
1068.4
|
100.0%
71.5% bye
|
11.8
(8-13)
|
|
|
||||||
|
3
|
iammclargehuge
|
6-3
5 games left
|
1175.5
|
100.0%
46.5% bye
|
9.5
(6-11)
|
|
|
||||||
|
4
|
bcdub49
|
5-4
5 games left
|
1010.5
|
86.3%
0.5% bye
|
8.5
(5-10)
|
|
|
||||||
|
5
|
denty425
|
4-5
5 games left
|
1052.5
|
80.7%
0.1% bye
|
6.6
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
6
|
ryanvhill
|
4-5
5 games left
|
945.6
|
34.7%
|
6.6
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
7
|
colglj
|
4-5
5 games left
|
924.1
|
27.8%
|
5.7
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
8
|
danr2049
|
4-5
5 games left
|
915.7
|
20.2%
|
6.3
(4-9)
|
|
|
||||||
|
9
|
chenry3
|
3-6
5 games left
|
989.2
|
23.8%
|
5.7
(3-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
10
|
PtownWarren
|
3-6
5 games left
|
973.2
|
19.2%
|
5.5
(3-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
11
|
khoa4101
|
3-6
5 games left
|
893.5
|
4.0%
|
4.4
(3-8)
|
|
|
||||||
|
12
|
JonnyWarren22
|
2-7
5 games left
|
933.6
|
3.2%
|
3.3
(2-7)
|
|
|
||||||
1
BYE
OBRightKanobi
8-1 • 5 left
100.0%
playoff
11.9
proj wins
1102.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
55.3%
Seed 2:
26.1%
Seed 3:
17.6%
Seed 4:
0.9%
Magic Number
1 win
To clinch playoff spot
2
BYE
aaronhill
8-1 • 5 left
100.0%
playoff
11.8
proj wins
1068.4
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
33.9%
Seed 2:
37.6%
Seed 3:
26.6%
Seed 4:
1.7%
Seed 5:
0.2%
Magic Number
1 win
To clinch playoff spot
3
iammclargehuge
6-3 • 5 left
100.0%
playoff
9.5
proj wins
1175.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 1:
10.7%
Seed 2:
35.7%
Seed 3:
49.7%
Seed 4:
3.1%
Seed 5:
0.5%
Seed 6:
0.2%
Magic Number
3 wins
To clinch playoff spot
4
bcdub49
5-4 • 5 left
86.3%
playoff
8.5
proj wins
1010.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.4%
Seed 3:
3.1%
Seed 4:
38.6%
Seed 5:
31.0%
Seed 6:
13.1%
Magic Number
4 wins
To clinch playoff spot
5
denty425
4-5 • 5 left
80.7%
playoff
6.6
proj wins
1052.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 2:
0.1%
Seed 3:
2.4%
Seed 4:
36.5%
Seed 5:
27.5%
Seed 6:
14.1%
Magic Number
5 wins
To clinch playoff spot
6
ryanvhill
4-5 • 5 left
34.7%
playoff
6.6
proj wins
945.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.1%
Seed 4:
6.9%
Seed 5:
11.1%
Seed 6:
16.7%
Magic Number
5 wins
To clinch playoff spot
7
colglj
4-5 • 5 left
27.8%
playoff
5.7
proj wins
924.1
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 3:
0.2%
Seed 4:
3.8%
Seed 5:
8.8%
Seed 6:
15.1%
Magic Number
5 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(7.7% chance)
• You must win 2 of 5 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 251.5 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 86.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 128.5 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 21.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.4)
• chenry3: outscore them by 65.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 49.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 30.6)
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 9.6 points
7-7
(7.7% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 251.5 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 86.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 128.5 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 21.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.4)
• chenry3: outscore them by 65.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 49.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 30.6)
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 9.6 points
8-6
(6.9% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 178.6 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 144.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 251.5 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 86.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 128.5 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 21.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.4)
• chenry3: outscore them by 65.1 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 49.2 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 30.6)
9-5
(5.5% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 178.6 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 144.4 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 251.5 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 86.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 128.5 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 21.6 points
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 8.4)
8
danr2049
4-5 • 5 left
20.2%
playoff
6.3
proj wins
915.7
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
2.2%
Seed 5:
6.2%
Seed 6:
11.7%
Magic Number
5 wins
To clinch playoff spot
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(5.6% chance)
• You must win 2 of 5 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 259.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 94.8 points
• denty425: outscore them by 136.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 30.0 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 57.6 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.2)
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 18.0 points
7-7
(5.6% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 259.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 94.8 points
• denty425: outscore them by 136.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 30.0 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 57.6 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.2)
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 18.0 points
8-6
(5.0% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 187.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 152.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 259.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 94.8 points
• denty425: outscore them by 136.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 30.0 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.5 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 73.5 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 57.6 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 22.2)
9-5
(4.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• OBRightKanobi must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• aaronhill must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 187.0 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 152.8 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 259.9 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 94.8 points
• denty425: outscore them by 136.9 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 30.0 points
• colglj: outscore them by 8.5 points
9
chenry3
3-6 • 5 left
23.8%
playoff
5.7
proj wins
989.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
3.6%
Seed 5:
7.7%
Seed 6:
12.5%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(10.1% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 186.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 21.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 63.4 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 43.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 65.0)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 73.4)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.0)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 95.6)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
7-7
(7.5% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 186.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 21.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 63.4 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 43.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 65.0)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 73.4)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.0)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 95.6)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 55.6)
8-6
(6.2% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 113.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 79.3 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 186.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 21.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 63.4 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 43.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 65.0)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 73.4)
• PtownWarren: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 16.0)
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 95.6)
10
PtownWarren
3-6 • 5 left
19.2%
playoff
5.5
proj wins
973.2
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
2.6%
Seed 5:
5.5%
Seed 6:
11.2%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(8.2% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 202.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 37.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 79.4 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.5)
• chenry3: outscore them by 16.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 79.6)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 39.6)
7-7
(6.0% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 202.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 37.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 79.4 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.5)
• chenry3: outscore them by 16.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 79.6)
• JonnyWarren22: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 39.6)
8-6
(5.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 129.5 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 95.3 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 202.4 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 37.4 points
• denty425: outscore them by 79.4 points
• ryanvhill: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 27.6)
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 49.1)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 57.5)
• chenry3: outscore them by 16.1 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 79.6)
11
khoa4101
3-6 • 5 left
4.0%
playoff
4.4
proj wins
893.5
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.2%
Seed 5:
0.8%
Seed 6:
3.0%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(1.7% chance)
• You must win 3 of 5 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• JonnyWarren22 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 282.0 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 117.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.0 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 52.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 30.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 22.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 95.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 79.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 40.2 points
7-7
(1.2% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 282.0 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 117.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.0 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 52.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 30.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 22.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 95.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 79.7 points
• JonnyWarren22: outscore them by 40.2 points
8-6
(1.0% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• OBRightKanobi: outscore them by 209.1 points
• aaronhill: outscore them by 174.9 points
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 282.0 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 117.0 points
• denty425: outscore them by 159.0 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 52.1 points
• colglj: outscore them by 30.7 points
• danr2049: outscore them by 22.3 points
• chenry3: outscore them by 95.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 79.7 points
12
JonnyWarren22
2-7 • 5 left
3.2%
playoff
3.3
proj wins
933.6
pts for
Seed Probabilities
Seed 4:
0.1%
Seed 5:
0.7%
Seed 6:
2.4%
Playoff Scenarios
6-8
(1.9% chance)
• You must win 4 of 5 remaining games
• bcdub49 must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 242.0 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 76.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 119.0 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 12.1 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.5)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.9)
• chenry3: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 39.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 40.1)
7-7
(1.3% chance)
• You must win 5 of 5 remaining games
• iammclargehuge must lose at least 4 of 5 remaining
• bcdub49 must lose at least 3 of 5 remaining
• denty425 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• ryanvhill must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• colglj must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• danr2049 must lose at least 2 of 5 remaining
• chenry3 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• PtownWarren must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• khoa4101 must lose at least 1 of 5 remaining
• iammclargehuge: outscore them by 242.0 points
• bcdub49: outscore them by 76.9 points
• denty425: outscore them by 119.0 points
• ryanvhill: outscore them by 12.1 points
• colglj: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 9.5)
• danr2049: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 17.9)
• chenry3: outscore them by 55.7 points
• PtownWarren: outscore them by 39.7 points
• khoa4101: maintain points lead (currently ahead by 40.1)
Understanding Your Playoff Chances
Playoff %
Calculated via Monte Carlo simulations accounting for team strength, schedule, and variance.
Magic Number
Wins needed to mathematically clinch a playoff spot, regardless of other outcomes.
Playoff Scenarios
Schedule-validated paths showing exactly what needs to happen. All scenarios verified for feasibility.
Current Seed
Your standings rank based on current record and tiebreaker rules.
Projected Wins
Expected final record based on team performance and schedule strength (with range).
Mathematical Elimination
Only appears when playoff qualification is impossible, even with perfect remaining results.
Advanced Algorithm: Playoff scenarios use max-flow network analysis to validate that all requirements can be satisfied simultaneously given the actual game schedule. Impossible scenarios are automatically filtered out.